The data that set off alarm bells comes from ocean surface temperature measurements in the Niño 3.4 region, a vast swath of the equatorial Pacific used by scientists to track the development of El Niño. According to an analysis of daily NOAA data cited by The Washington Post, on Saturday the anomaly reached 3.05 °C above average, the highest daily peak recorded in that dataset. Other recent analyses, using slightly different methodologies, place the anomaly at around 3.07 °C, tying the high set in the 2015–2016 season.
The difference between these figures is not a contradiction. The indices may vary depending on the data set, the climatological period used as a reference, and the methodology employed. What is remarkable is that virtually all of them show the same thing: The tropical Pacific is exceptionally warm, and El Niño continues to intensify.
And that is precisely what is worrisome.
The record is set at approximately two months earlier than the comparable peak recorded in November 2015. El Niño typically continues to develop during the northern fall and reaches its peak intensity toward the end of the year. If the phenomenon continues on its current trajectory, it would still have about three months to strengthen.
Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society reported on September 21 that the seasonal average for the Niño 3.4 region reached +2.03 °C between June and August, while August reached +2.52 °C and the weekly index centered on September 16 reached approximately +3.0 °C. Atmospheric indicators also show a response consistent with an exceptionally intense El Niño.
The World Meteorological Organization had already warned in early September that El Niño was firmly established and would continue to strengthen. Its models placed it at nearly 100 % the probability that it would persist during the period from December 2026 to February 2027, noting that a very intense event can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions of the planet.
The consequences are not the same everywhere. El Niño partially reorganizes global atmospheric circulation and can cause opposite effects thousands of kilometers apart: torrential rains in some regions and severe droughts in others.
There are already worrying signs. The Washington Post reports record-breaking temperatures in Peru, deadly storms in Chile, droughts and wildfires in Indonesia, and various extreme weather events in the United States. In Central America, AFP reports that crops and livestock have been affected by the drought, along with problems stemming from water shortages.
The situation has even led to California to Declare a State of Emergency as a Precautionary Measure. Governor Gavin Newsom issued the proclamation on Monday to expedite the preparation of resources, infrastructure, and response teams in anticipation of the possibility of heavy rains, flooding, landslides, coastal erosion, and power outages in the coming months. The measure also allows for the preparation of resources for rescue and flood response operations.
But there is one point that should be made clear: A record-breaking El Niño does not mean that every storm can be predicted, nor does it mean that all weather-related disasters in the coming months will be directly caused by it. This phenomenon alters large-scale weather probabilities and patterns; the specific weather conditions in each region depend on many other factors.
That doesn't diminish the magnitude of what is happening.
The 1997–1998 El Niño event caused floods, droughts, and enormous economic losses in various parts of the world. The 2015–2016 episode was also marked by exceptionally high global temperatures. The 2026 event is already rivaling those giants before reaching the time of year when it normally peaks.
Scientists will now be monitoring every new reading from the Pacific. If the waters continue to warm throughout October, November, and December, the current episode could end up setting records that, until recently, seemed difficult to reach. The record has already been broken.
El Niño, however, has not yet finished growing.
