{"id":5956,"date":"2026-10-28T19:48:01","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T23:48:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canasanta.ca\/uncategorized\/mundo-encarece-materias-primas-subiran-23-por-ciento\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T19:50:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T23:50:12","slug":"mundo-encarece-materias-primas-subiran-23-por-ciento","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canasanta.ca\/en\/politica\/impuestos\/mundo-encarece-materias-primas-subiran-23-por-ciento\/","title":{"rendered":"EL MUNDO SE ENCARECE: LAS MATERIAS PRIMAS SUBIR\u00c1N 23%"},"content":{"rendered":"

La factura de la guerra, la energ\u00eda cara y las interrupciones del comercio mundial est\u00e1 llegando a pr\u00e1cticamente todos los bolsillos. El Banco Mundial proyecta que los precios internacionales de las materias primas subir\u00e1n un 23% en 2026, un giro brusco que amenaza con mantener elevada la inflaci\u00f3n y encarecer desde el combustible y la electricidad hasta los alimentos.<\/p>\n

El nuevo Commodity Markets Outlook, publicado este mi\u00e9rcoles 28 de octubre, dibuja un escenario considerablemente m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil que el previsto hace apenas unos meses. El conflicto en Oriente Medio ha reducido los inventarios de petr\u00f3leo, las rutas de granos contin\u00faan sometidas a riesgos y un posible episodio fuerte de El Ni\u00f1o a\u00f1ade otra amenaza sobre las cosechas.<\/p>\n

La energ\u00eda vuelve a dispararse<\/strong><\/h2>\n

El mayor golpe procede de la energ\u00eda. El Banco Mundial calcula que sus precios aumentar\u00e1n un 32% este a\u00f1o, revirtiendo tres a\u00f1os consecutivos de descensos. El crudo Brent promediar\u00eda alrededor de 91 d\u00f3lares por barril en 2026, frente a 69 d\u00f3lares en 2025, antes de moderarse hasta unos 79 d\u00f3lares en 2027.<\/p>\n

Detr\u00e1s de esas cifras existe un problema de oferta. La producci\u00f3n mundial de petr\u00f3leo podr\u00eda caer un 5,2% durante 2026, el mayor descenso en m\u00e1s de cuatro d\u00e9cadas si se excluye la excepcional recesi\u00f3n de 2020. Al mismo tiempo, los inventarios han disminuido y el mercado dispone de menos margen para absorber otra interrupci\u00f3n importante.<\/p>\n

La consecuencia no queda limitada a las estaciones de servicio. El petr\u00f3leo y el gas intervienen en el transporte, la producci\u00f3n industrial, la agricultura, la fabricaci\u00f3n de fertilizantes y las cadenas log\u00edsticas. Cuando su precio sube durante un per\u00edodo prolongado, la presi\u00f3n termina traslad\u00e1ndose a una enorme cantidad de bienes y servicios.<\/p>\n

La comida tampoco escapa<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Los alimentos constituyen el segundo frente de preocupaci\u00f3n. El organismo prev\u00e9 que las materias primas alimentarias aumenten alrededor de un 10% en 2026 y otro 7% en 2027. En conjunto, el incremento durante ambos a\u00f1os rondar\u00eda el 18%.<\/p>\n

El encarecimiento del combustible y de los fertilizantes \u2014estos \u00faltimos subir\u00edan aproximadamente un 14% este a\u00f1o\u2014 eleva los costes de producir y transportar comida. A ello se suman las interrupciones del comercio de granos y el riesgo meteorol\u00f3gico. Para los hogares de menores ingresos, que destinan una proporci\u00f3n mayor de su presupuesto a alimentaci\u00f3n y energ\u00eda, el efecto puede ser especialmente severo.<\/p>\n

Metales en m\u00e1ximos y oro como refugio<\/strong><\/h2>\n

La presi\u00f3n se extiende tambi\u00e9n a los metales. El Banco Mundial espera que los precios de los metales industriales aumenten un 25% en 2026, impulsados por la demanda asociada a redes el\u00e9ctricas, veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos, centros de datos y nuevas infraestructuras tecnol\u00f3gicas, al mismo tiempo que persisten restricciones de oferta.<\/p>\n

Los metales preciosos presentan un movimiento todav\u00eda mayor. La previsi\u00f3n apunta a un incremento cercano al 40% este a\u00f1o, alimentado por la b\u00fasqueda de activos refugio en un entorno de incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica y econ\u00f3mica. Aunque los precios podr\u00edan moderarse posteriormente, seguir\u00edan muy por encima de sus promedios hist\u00f3ricos recientes.<\/p>\n

El peor escenario ser\u00eda mucho m\u00e1s caro<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Las proyecciones centrales parten de que no habr\u00e1 una intensificaci\u00f3n grave de los conflictos que afectan el suministro mundial. Ese supuesto es crucial. Si la guerra en Oriente Medio se agrava, contin\u00faan los da\u00f1os a la infraestructura petrolera rusa y aumentan las perturbaciones del transporte de granos por el mar Negro, el panorama podr\u00eda deteriorarse con rapidez.<\/p>\n

En un escenario adverso combinado con un El Ni\u00f1o particularmente intenso, el Banco Mundial calcula que el Brent podr\u00eda promediar 105 d\u00f3lares por barril en 2027 y los alimentos situarse un 12% por encima de la previsi\u00f3n base. Un choque de esa magnitud volver\u00eda a poner bajo presi\u00f3n a los bancos centrales justo cuando muchas econom\u00edas intentan recuperar estabilidad de precios.<\/p>\n

Una amenaza directa para el costo de vida<\/strong><\/h2>\n

El informe llega en un momento delicado. Canad\u00e1 acaba de elevar su tasa de inter\u00e9s ante una inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s persistente de lo esperado, mientras otros grandes bancos centrales siguen vigilando el impacto de la energ\u00eda sobre los precios. El encarecimiento simult\u00e1neo del petr\u00f3leo, los alimentos, los fertilizantes y los metales aumenta el riesgo de que las presiones de costos se propaguen nuevamente por toda la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n

El Banco Mundial advierte que los pa\u00edses pobres son los m\u00e1s vulnerables, especialmente aquellos que ya soportan elevados niveles de deuda. La instituci\u00f3n se\u00f1ala que dispone de entre 50.000 y 60.000 millones de d\u00f3lares mediante instrumentos existentes para ayudar a los pa\u00edses afectados, incluidos 25.000 millones en financiaci\u00f3n previamente acordada.<\/p>\n

La se\u00f1al que deja el informe es dif\u00edcil de ignorar: la crisis de las materias primas ya no es \u00fanicamente una historia de petr\u00f3leo. Energ\u00eda, alimentos y metales est\u00e1n subiendo al mismo tiempo, y esa combinaci\u00f3n puede convertirse en una nueva prueba para el costo de vida mundial durante los pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Banco Mundial prev\u00e9 que las materias primas subir\u00e1n 23% en 2026, con energ\u00eda, alimentos y metales presionando nuevamente la inflaci\u00f3n mundial.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":284226809,"featured_media":5955,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[33205457,33205451,33206547],"tags":[33207855,33207851,33207854,33207853,33207852],"class_list":["post-5956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-al-dia","category-impuestos","category-mundo","tag-alimentos-2027","tag-banco-mundial-2026","tag-crisis-energetica-2026","tag-inflacion-global","tag-precios-de-materias-primas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEL 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