{"id":4723,"date":"2026-10-21T11:15:04","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T15:15:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canasanta.ca\/?p=4723"},"modified":"2026-10-21T11:15:04","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T15:15:04","slug":"glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canasanta.ca\/en\/ciencia\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"EL GLACIAR QUE PUEDE DUPLICAR SU AMENAZA AL NIVEL DEL MAR"},"content":{"rendered":"

El glaciar Thwaites, una de las masas de hielo m\u00e1s vigiladas de la Ant\u00e1rtida, podr\u00eda contribuir al aumento del nivel del mar mucho m\u00e1s de lo que estimaban algunos modelos. Un nuevo estudio desarrollado con participaci\u00f3n del Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) de la NASA concluye que, en determinadas simulaciones, su aporte de aqu\u00ed a finales de siglo llega a ser hasta el doble de algunas proyecciones actuales.<\/p>\n

La investigaci\u00f3n no anuncia un colapso inmediato. Lo que cambia es la manera de representar una de las zonas m\u00e1s delicadas del glaciar: el punto donde el hielo deja de descansar sobre tierra firme y comienza a flotar sobre el oc\u00e9ano.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

El agua se mete debajo del hielo<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/div>\n

Los modelos tradicionales suelen tratar esa transici\u00f3n como una l\u00ednea relativamente definida, conocida como l\u00ednea de apoyo. El nuevo trabajo la representa como una zona m\u00e1s amplia y din\u00e1mica. All\u00ed, el agua de mar puede penetrar varios kil\u00f3metros bajo el hielo que todav\u00eda se encuentra apoyado en el terreno.<\/p>\n

Las mareas levantan y bajan parcialmente ese hielo, permitiendo que agua oce\u00e1nica relativamente c\u00e1lida alcance sectores que antes quedaban simplificados en los modelos. Ese contacto adicional favorece el derretimiento desde abajo y puede aumentar la inestabilidad del glaciar.<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan la NASA, incorporar estas llamadas zonas de apoyo permiti\u00f3 reproducir el retroceso hist\u00f3rico de Thwaites con una precisi\u00f3n aproximadamente cuatro veces mayor que la obtenida por modelos que no incluyen ese comportamiento. Para comprobarlo, los investigadores contrastaron sus resultados con observaciones satelitales que se remontan a la d\u00e9cada de 1990.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Por qu\u00e9 Thwaites preocupa tanto<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/div>\n

Thwaites se encuentra en la Ant\u00e1rtida occidental y desde hace a\u00f1os ocupa un lugar central en los estudios sobre el futuro del nivel del mar. Su comportamiento es especialmente complejo porque el oc\u00e9ano, el relieve situado bajo el hielo, las mareas y el movimiento de la propia masa glaciar interact\u00faan de formas dif\u00edciles de representar matem\u00e1ticamente.<\/p>\n

La consecuencia pr\u00e1ctica del nuevo estudio es importante: si un modelo describe mejor lo que sucede debajo del hielo, tambi\u00e9n puede ofrecer proyecciones m\u00e1s fiables sobre cu\u00e1nto hielo terminar\u00e1 llegando al oc\u00e9ano y en qu\u00e9 plazos.<\/p>\n

El trabajo fue realizado con un modelo desarrollado por el JPL de la NASA junto con investigadores de la Universidad de California en Irvine y Dartmouth College. Los resultados fueron publicados en Nature Communications<\/em>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Una se\u00f1al para las ciudades costeras<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/div>\n

La diferencia entre una proyecci\u00f3n y otra no es un detalle acad\u00e9mico para las regiones costeras. Las estimaciones del nivel del mar se utilizan para dise\u00f1ar infraestructura, calcular riesgos de inundaci\u00f3n, planificar defensas costeras y decidir d\u00f3nde ser\u00e1 necesario adaptar edificios, carreteras y servicios p\u00fablicos durante las pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas.<\/p>\n

Los investigadores sostienen que representar las zonas de apoyo puede reducir parte de la incertidumbre que todav\u00eda rodea a Thwaites. Eso no significa que todas las simulaciones produzcan el escenario m\u00e1s extremo, sino que existe un mecanismo f\u00edsico que algunos modelos anteriores pod\u00edan estar subestimando.<\/p>\n

El glaciar seguir\u00e1 bajo vigilancia. Pero el nuevo modelo a\u00f1ade una pieza inc\u00f3moda al rompecabezas: una parte decisiva de la historia de Thwaites no ocurre sobre su superficie, sino varios kil\u00f3metros debajo del hielo, donde el oc\u00e9ano puede estar ganando terreno.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un nuevo modelo de la NASA indica que el glaciar Thwaites podr\u00eda aportar al aumento del nivel del mar hasta el doble de algunas proyecciones actuales.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":284226809,"featured_media":4726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[33205457,3213],"tags":[33207339,33207338,33205984,33207340],"class_list":["post-4723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-al-dia","category-ciencia","tag-antartida","tag-glaciar-thwaites","tag-nasa","tag-nivel-del-mar"],"acf":{"introduccion":"","fuentes_y_referencias":"

NASA Science<\/strong> \u2014 \u201cNASA Study Refines Projections for Thwaites Glacier\u201d, 20 de octubre de 2026.<\/p>

Nature Communications<\/strong> \u2014 estudio sobre la din\u00e1mica de las zonas de apoyo del glaciar Thwaites, publicado el 12 de octubre de 2026.<\/p>","autor":[748]},"yoast_head":"\nEL GLACIAR QUE PUEDE DUPLICAR SU AMENAZA AL NIVEL DEL MAR - Ca\u00f1asanta<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Un nuevo modelo de la NASA indica que el glaciar Thwaites podr\u00eda elevar el nivel del mar m\u00e1s de lo previsto en algunas proyecciones.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/canasanta.ca\/en\/science\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EL GLACIAR QUE PUEDE DUPLICAR SU AMENAZA AL NIVEL DEL MAR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un nuevo modelo de la NASA indica que el glaciar Thwaites podr\u00eda elevar el nivel del mar m\u00e1s de lo previsto en algunas proyecciones.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/canasanta.ca\/en\/science\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ca\u00f1asanta\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-21T15:15:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/canasanta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Thwaites-%E2%80%94-hielo-antartico-1200x630-1.jpg?resize=1200,630&quality=85&strip=all&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ca\u00f1asanta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ca\u00f1asanta\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ca\u00f1asanta\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/21421a3c6f1733be6c5c590190fd8e93\"},\"headline\":\"EL GLACIAR QUE PUEDE DUPLICAR SU AMENAZA AL NIVEL DEL MAR\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-21T15:15:04+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":584,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/Thwaites-%E2%80%94-hielo-antartico-1200x630-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Ant\u00e1rtida\",\"Glaciar Thwaites\",\"NASA\",\"Nivel del mar\"],\"articleSection\":[\"AL D\u00cdA!\",\"Ciencia\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/canasanta.ca\\\/ciencia\\\/glaciar-thwaites-nasa-nivel-mar-2026\\\/\",\"name\":\"EL GLACIAR QUE PUEDE DUPLICAR SU AMENAZA AL NIVEL DEL MAR - 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